Free Link to Mets360: How likely is it that Luis Severino bounces back to his old form?


By Brian Joura

The Mets have yet to sign a high-profile free agent, although few doubt that they will. Currently, the biggest name they’ve brought in is Luis Severino. Unfortunately, it’s not 2018, which was Severino’s last big year. Which makes signing the former Yankee a dumpster-dive move. The question is: How likely is a dumpster-dive move pay off?

Before we can examine this question, we need to define some terms. Let’s use a minimum of three years since a player was last good as what qualifies a move as a dumpster-dive one. Okay, how do we define good? Let’s limit this discussion to pitchers and let’s declare that they had to pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title and in that season, they had to have posted at least a 110 ERA+. For the record, these definitions are arbitrary and you could come up with different ones and also have a valid study of the issue.

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